METEOROLOGY 361 Spring, 2008
Exam
1
Name
____________________________________
Directions: This is an Open-notes exam. Use anything you want, including the Internet. You can’t ask each other questions but you can ask me for clarifications (no guarantee that I’ll be able to answer). Answer all parts of all 3 questions in the blue books unless otherwise directed. Here is some information you may or may not need:
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Run the file even though the publisher is unverified.1.
For this question, you need to carefully study the GFS 96 hour
forecasts for
the 300 mb
and surface (MSLP)
levels.
a. ( 6%)
There are two storms indicated. Where
are
they centered at the surface?
b. ( 22%)
Of the two storms, only the eastern one became intense.
Assume the 300 mb
and surface
forecasts
will verify perfectly.
Give two reasons from each of
these maps (a total of four reasons) that support a
forecast of an
intense east coast storm. Explain
how
your ideas worked in favor of a powerful coastal storm.
c. ( 12%) The storm in the west did NOT become a strong Colorado Hooker. Give ONE major reason from each map to explain why that didn’t happen, i.e., find two very unfavorable factors, one from the 300 mb forecast and one from the surface forecast. Explain how each worked against intense storm development.
2. Last December a storm affected the northeast
a. ( 8%)
Write a forecast discussion in the NWS format.
Click here for an
example that you should follow
(note
it is NOT for that case –
this is just for format). You must include the technical
discussion of the waves for the near term forecast, based on the
guidance you have. You do NOT need to abbreviate everything.
This is not a forecast for a specific location (that's the next
two parts).
b. ( 12%)
Write a detailed forecast of precipitation type and intensity for New
York City
(NYC) for the 24 hour period from 00 Dec 16 through
00
Dec 17. Your
forecast is meant for other
forecasters. Justify
your forecast by
referring to the guidance.
c. ( 12%)
Write a detailed forecast of precipitation type and intensity for
Oneonta (NYO)
for the 24 hour period from 00 Dec 16 through 00 Dec 17. Your forecast is meant for
other
forecasters. Justify
your forecast by
referring to the guidance.
3. For this question, use the two cross sections from Feb 20 of this
year. The first cross
section is analyzed only with
isentropes. On
the second
cross section, the isentropes
are overlain
with isotachs.
You may also view a
map of the upper air stations.
a. ( 4%)
Where is the center of the cold dome at the surface?
Pick a station
b. ( 10%)
On the paper Skew-T Log P diagrams provided, draw a reasonable
facsimile of
the
temperature sounding at KRAP (
c. ( 6%)
Identify the two jet maxima shown (Polar?
Subtropical?
d. ( 8%)
The isentropes slope
downward from KABR to KRAP.
What information does that fact provide that
you couldn’t get from the
300 mb
map? Think
hard about this one. There's more
to this than you might think. You may want to
check the
850 mb map, the
700 mb map, and the
500 mb map to
answer this.
You must finish by