Lab 2 (Jan 24, 2018) Planning for your Case Study

For this lab, you must pretend you are doing the current weather for your case study (if you already are doing it, you are ahead of the game). Much of the preliminary development of the weather situation has already happened. Nevertheless, for this exercise, start with what will happen from 00Z tonight. You must devise a plan of what information you want to present, where to find it, and when to download it.

This is not a graded lab. I want you to write down your plan and I’ll look at them. But this is essentially for YOU so you will know what to do when you pick a case.

Example: You should show surface maps. So write down at what website you can find them (the entire URL). Also, make a schedule of when you will download the surface maps from that website. Use UTC for times. Don’t worry if you want them overnight. Assume you will be available for downloading 24/7.

Your plan should have an entry like this:

Map URL Download day/time

Surface www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif Every day, every 3 hours, at

2Z, 5Z, 8Z, 11Z, 14Z, 17Z, 20Z, 23Z.

Notice I left 2 hours after map time for the WPC to upload, i.e., actually put it online.

There will be a lot of different types of maps, not just surface maps. Include analyses and forecasts. Of course, forecasts must be downloaded in advance of the verifying time. Your plan shows the time when downloading will take place. It is essentially a set of instructions for yourself.

For overnight downloading, assume the maps may be downloaded by my automatic scheduler program which can be told to look for a certain map name, like namussfcwbg.gif. It works best if the map name is generic, so Feb18map.gif wouldn’t work after Feb 18. Try not to pick maps with dates or timestamps. Text products are OK, even desirable.

The first thing to do is to describe the synoptic situation. This gives you the chance to think about what maps and information will be important to download. So, in a snowstorm case, your synoptic description leads inevitably to snow totals or even a snowfall map. Find one now BEFORE your storm takes place.

Next, look for what is interesting or different in your storm. Do you want to do a severe thunderstorm case? You may want to download soundings, severe weather outlooks, stability indices (like the Lifted Index), etc. List everything you think you will need to present a good case study and put them in your plan for downloads. You will also want to look for human interest and/or local interest. Local can mean your hometown-local or it could mean Oneonta. If nothing will happen either place, pick a town or city that will get interesting weather and call it your adopted hometown.

While this is not graded, turn in what you have today. I’ll comment and get it back to you. A poor job won’t cost you now, but when it comes time for your case study downloading, you may not be ready. And the case study is worth 20%.

How to actually do the case study

Here’s the assignment, from the Syllabus:

Project (20% of course grade): This is a term paper and presentation based on a research project.  You will choose a real-time case study.  Planning for this should begin immediately as your case could come up tomorrow. To reserve a date or event, ask me.  The first person to request a date gets it.  If the weather for your date is a dud, you can request one other and that’s the one you take (no third chances).  You must prepare a written report and make an oral presentation using Microsoft PowerPoint, scheduled for April 25. Grades will be based on how well you show (through the oral and written parts) that you know the subject. The written report and PowerPoint are both due on April 25 by the end of the lab period. Your overall project grade will be the average of the oral and written grades.

Project Planning

1. What do you want to do with your case?

a. Describe what happened

i. Meteorologically

ii. Human interest

b. Assess the forecasts of this event

i. Models

ii. NWS

iii. Other (Weather Channel?, Accu-weather?)

c. Analyze any aspect of meteorological interest

i. meteorologically unusual?

ii. of local interest?

iii. extreme?

2. Decide what you would want to show. Likely possibilities (you could come up with more):

a. Surface maps

b. upper air maps

c. Radar

d. satellite

e. soundings

f. maps specific to the type of case, e.g., snowfall, precip, lake temperature, severe reports, etc.

g. forecasts

h. Data (if it shows something important to the case)

For example, this could be a list of the daily observations

3. What you will do once you have the downloads.

a. Go over the downloaded products to identify those which are useful

b. Organize them to tell the story of your case

c. Write up the report at least one week before April 25. Proofread it.

d. Create the PowerPoint at least one week before April 25. Practice the oral report