Lab 3 (Jan 30, 2019)                           Planning for your Case Study

For this lab, you must pretend you are doing the current weather for your case study (if you already are doing it, you are ahead of the game).  Much of the preliminary development of the weather situation has already happened.  Nevertheless, for this exercise, start with what will happen from 00Z tonight.  You must devise a plan of what information you want to present, where to find it, and when to download it.

This is not a graded lab. I want you to write down your plan and I’ll look at them.  But this is essentially for YOU so you will know what to do when you pick a case.

Example:  You should show surface maps. So write down at what website you can find them (the entire URL).    Also, make a schedule of when you will download the surface maps from that website.  Use UTC for times.  Don’t worry if you want them overnight.  Assume you will be available for downloading 24/7.

Your plan should have an entry like this:

Map                 URL                                                                            Download day/time

Surface            www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif         Every day, every 3 hours, at

2Z, 5Z, 8Z, 11Z, 14Z, 17Z, 20Z, 23Z.

Notice I left 2 hours after map time for the WPC to upload, i.e., actually put it online.

There will be a lot of different types of maps, not just surface maps.  Include analyses and forecasts.  Of course, forecasts must be downloaded in advance of the verifying time. Your plan shows the time when downloading will take place.  It is essentially a set of instructions for yourself.

For overnight downloading, assume the maps may be downloaded by my automatic scheduler program which can be told to look for a certain map name, like namussfcwbg.gif.  It works best if the map name is generic, so Feb18map.gif wouldn’t work after Feb 18.  Try not to pick maps with dates or timestamps.  Text products are OK, even desirable. 

The first thing to do is to describe the synoptic situation.  This gives you the chance to think about what maps and information will be important to download. So, in a snowstorm case, your synoptic description leads inevitably to snow totals or even a snowfall map. Find one now BEFORE your storm takes place. 

Next, look for what is interesting or different in your storm.  Do you want to do a severe thunderstorm case?  You may want to download soundings, severe weather outlooks, stability indices (like the Lifted Index), etc.  List everything you think you will need to present a good case study and put them in your plan for downloads.  You will also want to look for human interest and/or local interest.  Local can mean your hometown-local or it could mean Oneonta.  If nothing will happen either place, pick a town or city that will get interesting weather and call it your adopted hometown.

While this is not graded, turn in what you have today.  I’ll comment and get it back to you.  A poor job won’t cost you now, but when it comes time for your case study downloading, you may not be ready.  And the case study is worth 20%.

How to actually do the case study

Here’s the assignment, from the Syllabus:

Project (20% of course grade): This is a term paper and presentation based on a research project.  You will choose a real-time case study.  Planning for this should begin immediately as your case could come up tomorrow. To reserve a date or event, ask me.  The first person to request a date gets it.  If the weather for your date is a dud, you can request one other and that’s the one you take (no third chances).  You must prepare a written report and make an oral presentation using Microsoft PowerPoint, scheduled for April 24. Grades will be based on how well you show (through the oral and written parts) that you know the subject. The written report and PowerPoint are both due on April 24 by the end of the lab period. Your overall project grade will be the average of the oral and written grades.

Project Planning

1. What do you want to do with your case?

            a. Describe what happened

i. Meteorologically

                        ii. Human interest

            b. Assess the forecasts of this event

i. Models

                        ii. NWS

                        iii. Other (Weather Channel?, Accu-weather?)

            c. Analyze any aspect of meteorological interest

i. meteorologically unusual?

                        ii. of local interest?

                        iii. extreme?

2. Decide what you would want to show.  Likely possibilities (you could come up with more):

            a. Surface maps

            b. upper air maps

            c. Radar

            d. satellite

            e. soundings

            f. maps specific to the type of case, e.g., snowfall, precip, lake temperature, severe reports, etc.

            g. forecasts

            h. Data (if it shows something important to the case)

                        For example, this could be a list of the daily observations

3. What you will do once you have the downloads.

            a. Go over the downloaded products to identify those which are useful

            b. Organize them to tell the story of your case

            c. Write up the report at least one week before April 24. Proofread it.

            d. Create the PowerPoint at least one week before April 24.  Practice the oral report

Writing up the report

When you are writing the term paper report at the end of the semester, use the outline shown here to organize your thoughts.  Then write them out using complete sentences and correct spelling and grammar.  Your word processor can help you flag misspelled words and poorly constructed sentences.  Note that proper use of the English language is NOT part of your grade for this assignment.  However, it’s just good practice to do that. You will find that employers and graduate schools will expect you to write well.  There is no excuse for spelling errors when the computer will show you the misspelled words as you type. Poor writing will keep you from getting the job you want getting into a graduate school. Get in the good writing habit now.

As shown in the outline above, you must describe what happened.  That does not mean tediously naming every state and/or city affected by a front or trough, etc.  In fact, if you include maps as figures, you don’t need to describe what is on them, except for the parts you want to discuss. It’s a case study.  You should study what is happening at the various parts of the atmosphere surface and upper air. Try to relate the features on each level or as shown by different platforms like radar and satellite to other features.  For example, if a front appears on the surface map, it will also appear as a temperature gradient in levels above.  It may have a strong jet stream.  The location of such features may affect how the front creates weather events like heavy rain or severe thunderstorms.  The more connections you can make to explain why your case events happened as they did, the better your case study and the better your grade, in general.

On the other hand, please don’t try to fill up the report with all kinds of irrelevant statements, hoping to hit some connections that you really haven’t discovered.  If you write something incorrect (“Highs always appear directly under cutoff Lows at the tropopause”) you will lose points.  Keep it direct and to the point.  In fact, after your study your case carefully, you could notice a theme.  Heavy snow?  Severe thunderstorms?  Both? Just straight-line wind? Figure out what happened that caused your case to produce that theme and you have a great case study. Just pursue the theme, see and report the connections, have some ideas of what could have happened and report them as topics for future research, and you have a very good case study.

An important part of writing a scientific paper is to cite your sources.  Most of the text you write will be about the maps.  So, save those maps and include them in the paper.  Each map or image must be identified.  Label them Figure 1, Figure 2, etc.  In the text refer to them when you discuss that map or image, e.g., “On the surface map for 12Z April 12, 2019, a Low pressure center of 998 can be seen in eastern Colorado (Fig. 1). “

If you relate facts about the situation and those facts were something you found in a source, like a textbook or journal article, you must cite your source.  Use APA format, which is standard for meteorological journals. For example, you might write something in your paper about the CCL:  “The Convective Condensation Level, or CCL is found by following a dry adiabat to the surface from the intersection of the mixing ratio of surface air with the temperature sounding (Blechman 1998).”  Then, you create a reference list at the end of your paper, with the entire citation, Blechman, J.B., 1998: Fun facts about atmospheric soundings.  Mon. Wea. Rev. 113 343-354.

FAQ

1. How many pages should the paper be?

A: There is no set number.  You must write as much as you need to do a complete job. In general, 1-2 pages of text will not be enough for a case study of this type.  But your professor does not wish to read a 100-page paper so get to the points you want to make in no more than 10 typed pages.  Figures and Tables don’t count in that 10 pages.  Include as many as you need.

2. When is it due?

A: Both the written paper and oral presentation are due by the end of the last lab period.  During that lab period you will give your oral report. Turn in your PowerPoint as well as the written paper by the end of that period.

3. Can I turn it in late?

A: The written paper can be late but you will lose 5% for each day after the deadline date. The oral presentation is more difficult. We have no more lab periods after the one where you should present.  If you are sick and cannot make your presentation, we’ll have to use lecture time so please make every effort to be ready to go during the last lab period.

4. Do spelling and grammar count?

A: No, but if you write so badly that your professor can’t understand what you are trying to convey, you will lose points.  It’s a communication issue.