Spring, 2009: Weather Analysis and Forecasting II (METR 361) - 4 s.h.

                                                                                               

 

Lectures: 11-11:50 Mon, Wed, Fri (room 201)   Lab: Wed 2-4:50 (room 309)

Instructor: Dr. Jerome Blechman, 312 Science I, phone 3322, e-mail blechmjb@oneonta.edu       

Office hours: Monday 1-2, Tuesday 10-11, Thursday 2-3, Friday 10-11

 

Text: None.  Figures will be posted to the web page: http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/JBpages/METR361.html which can be accessed directly or through Angel

 

Course Description: Principles learned in METR 360 are applied to forecasting of severe weather conditions and different types of synoptic scale storms.  In addition, the construction of computer forecast models is studied for identification of systematic errors.  Also covered are summer forecasting, automated observation, and broadcast meteorology.  Laboratories cover specialized forecast techniques and media weather presentation.

 

Course Objectives:  In the Spring we cover more specific topics than in the Fall.  The purpose is to study more types of atmospheric behavior and to make better forecasts.  There will be sections on synoptics of severe weather, winter storms, as well as spring and summer forecast challenges, and forecast models.

 

 

Grading:   Class Exams: 15% each (total=30%), Lab assignments: 15%, Final exam (cumulative): 20%, Project: 20% Forecast contest: 15% - This will mostly be the WxChallenge Contest, as in the fall.  During severe weather season I will change the format so we can forecast severe thunderstorm areas.  You will be notified.  Your cumulative SPRING semester score will be used.  The schedule is at the bottom of this site.

 

Grading Scale:              93-100% = A         90-92% = A-                          87-89% = B+                          83-86% = B

                                          80-82% = B-           77-79% = C+                          73-76% = C                            70-72% = C-

                                          67-69% = D+         63-66% = D                            60-62% = D-                          0-59% = E

 

 

Project (20% of course grade): The course project will be a research project.  You will choose a real-time case study.  Planning for this should begin immediately as your case could come up tomorrow.  I will only allow one person to each case. If you want to reserve a date, let me know.  The first one to request a date gets it.  If the weather for your date is a dud, you can request one other and that’s the one you take (no third chances).  You must prepare a written report and make an oral presentation using Microsoft PowerPoint, scheduled for May 6.  The written report is due on May 4. Submit your PowerPoint on May 6. Your project grade will be the average of the oral and written grades.

 

 

Lecture Topics

1. Colorado Hooker storm case studies                    7. Synoptics of severe weather

2. Cross-section analysis                                          8. Summer synoptics

3. East coast snowstorm studies                               9. ASOS

4. EXAM (see lab schedule)                                   10. EXAM (see lab schedule)

5. Freezing precipitation                                           11. NAM, GFS model mechanics

6. Broadcast meteorology                                           

 

                   FINAL EXAM:  May 11, 2 p.m.        

               

Notes:

 

No attendance will be taken in lecture or lab.  It is up to you to come to class to get the necessary material.  Since there is no text, this becomes even more important.

 

If you miss an exam you MUST have a verifiable, acceptable excuse to take a makeup.  If you’re sick, go to the Health Center.  Contact Dr. Blechman (3322) as soon as possible in any case when you miss an exam.

 

Graded labs must be turned in the following week, unless a different due date is announced during the laboratory period.  If you are sick and miss the lab period, you must make up the assignment as soon as possible. 

 

 

Labs:

 

As standard equipment you will need colored pens and pencils (red, blue, green), a plotting pen and a ruler.  Bring a calculator also.  Starred labs (*) will be graded.  

 

*  1. Colorado Blizzard case surface analysis                                                            Jan 14

*  2. IDV introduction and Nor’easter study                                                             Jan 21

*  3. Colorado Blizzard case cross section I (soundings)                                           Jan 28

*  4. Colorado Blizzard case cross-section II (analysis)                                             Feb 4

    5. EXAM 1                                                                                                        Feb 11

*  6. IDV study: Tale of Two Clippers                                                                      Feb 18

*  7. BUFKIT                                                                                                         Mar 4

    8. TV practice using chroma-key in lab                                                                 Mar 11

    9. TV presentations (at IRC)                                                                                Mar 18

  10. EXAM 2                                                                                                        Mar 25

*11. Severe weather indices (calculator required)                                                     Apr 1

*12. Composite chart for severe weather                                                                 Apr 15

  13. Severe weather discussion (groups)                                                                  Apr 22

  14. Severe weather discussion (groups)                                                                  Apr 29

*15.  Research Oral Reports (Written Reports due May 4)                              May 6

 

 

Forecast Schedule (WxChallenge and Severe Weather)

 

Dates                                       Site                                                                                         

 

Jan 26-Feb 5                            Phoenix, AZ (KPHX)

Feb 9-19                                  New York, NY (KJFK)

Feb 23-Mar 5                          Birmingham, AL (KBHM)  We are on break Feb 23-27.  Forecasts will NOT count for class grade but will count for WxChallenge standings.

 

Mar 19-19                               Cincinnati, OH (KCVG)

March 23-April 2                     Site to be determined by vote of all forecasters

                          

Apr 14-17, Apr 20-23, April 27-30:    Severe Weather forecasting