Spring, 2019: Weather Analysis and Forecasting II (METR 361) - 4 s.h.
Lectures: 9-9:50 Mon, Wed, Fri (309)
Lab: Wed 2-4:50 (309)
Instructor: Dr. Jerome Blechman, 311B Science I,
phone 3322, e-mail Jerome.Blechman@oneonta.edu
Office
hours: Monday and
Friday 10-11, Tuesday 1-2, Wednesday 11-12
Text: None. Figures will be
posted to the web page: http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/JBpages/METR361top2019.html which can be accessed directly or through Blackboard
Catalog Course Description: Principles learned in METR 360 are applied to
forecasting of severe weather conditions and different types of synoptic scale
storms. In addition, the construction of
computer forecast models is studied for identification of systematic
errors. Also covered are summer
forecasting, automated observation, and broadcast meteorology. Laboratories cover specialized forecast
techniques and media weather presentation.
Course Objectives: In the Spring we cover
more applied topics than in the Fall.
The goal is to study more types of atmospheric behavior and to make
better forecasts. I will also expect you
to apply the basics you learned in METR 360 to different situations. You must
think about and analyze weather situations in this class. There will be
sections on synoptics of severe weather, winter storms, as well as spring and
summer forecast challenges, and forecast models. You will also plan and execute a real-time
synoptic meteorology case study.
SUNY Learning
Outcome and course goal:
Students will apply
principles of atmospheric synoptic and dynamic meteorology to the prediction of
states of the atmosphere on time scales up to two weeks into the future.
Emergency Evacuation/Shelter-in-Place Procedures:
In the event of an emergency evacuation (i.e. fire or
other emergency), classes meeting in Science I are directed to reassemble at Chase
Gymnasium so that all persons can be accounted for. Complete details
of the College’s emergency evacuation, shelter-in-place, and other emergency
procedures can be found at www.oneonta.edu/security.
ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act) Statement:
All individuals who are diagnosed with a disability are protected under the Americans with Disabilities Act, and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. As such, you may be entitled to certain accommodations within this class. If you are diagnosed with a disability, please make an appointment to meet with Student Disability Services (SDS), 209 Alumni Hall, ext. 2137. All students with the necessary supporting documentation will be provided appropriate accommodations as determined by the SDS Office. It is your responsibility to contact SDS and provide the professor with your accommodation plan before a test. More information can be found at http://www.oneonta.edu/development/sds/
Grading: Class Exams: 15% each
(total=30%), Lab assignments: 15%, Final exam (cumulative): 20%, Project: 20%, Forecast
contest: 15% - This will start with the WxChallenge
Contest as in the fall, but during severe weather season I will change the
format so we can forecast severe thunderstorm areas. Your cumulative SPRING
semester score will be used. The
schedule is on the next page. If your
course average is close to the borderline between two grades, I reserve the
right to choose which grade is most appropriate, based on how well you have
achieved the course learning outcome, in my opinion.
Grading Scale: 93-100% = A 90-92% = A- 87-89% = B+ 83-86%
= B
80-82%
= B- 77-79% = C+ 73-76% = C 70-72% = C-
67-69%
= D+ 63-66% = D 60-62% = D- 0-59% = E
Project (20% of course grade):
This is a term paper and presentation based on a research project. You will choose a real-time case study. Planning for this should begin immediately as
your case could come up tomorrow. To reserve a date or event, ask me. The first person to request a date gets
it. If the weather for your date is a
dud, you can request one other and that’s the one you take (no third
chances). You must prepare a written
report and make an oral presentation using Microsoft PowerPoint, scheduled for
April 24. Grades will be based on how well you show (through the oral and
written parts) that you know the subject. The written report and PowerPoint are
both due on April 24 by the end of
the lab period. Your overall project grade will be the average of the oral and
written grades.
Lecture Topics
1. Finish Jet Streams 7. ASOS
2.
3. East coast snowstorm
studies 9. Summer synoptics
4.
5. EXAM (February 20) 11. Model mechanics, verification
6. Broadcast meteorology FINAL EXAM: May 6, 8 a.m.
.
Notes and additional Policies:
No attendance will be taken
in lecture or lab so it is up to you to come to class to get the necessary
material. Since there is no text, this
is very important. If you are sick or
need to miss a class for a legitimate reason, you are still responsible for the
material covered in class. The lecture PowerPoints will be posted to the course
page, http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/JBpages/Metr361top2019.html. Any topic in the PowerPoints could appear on exams. If you have want to know about something in
the PowerPoints there was not covered in lecture, ask me.
If you miss an exam you
MUST have a verifiable, acceptable excuse to take a makeup. If you’re sick, go to the
Graded labs must be turned
in the following week, unless a different due date is announced during the
laboratory period. If you are sick and
miss the lab period, you must make up the assignment as soon as possible (no
doctor’s note needed for labs).
Labs:
As standard equipment you
will need colored pens and pencils (red, blue, green), a plotting pen and a
ruler. Bring a calculator also. Starred lab (*) grades count as part of the
overall lab grade (15%). Bold lettering indicates a separate grade, not
included in the lab average will be given for this “lab”, as shown in the
section “Grading”.
* 1. “Instant” case studies Jan
16
* 2. Colorado Blizzard case surface analysis Jan
23
3. Case
Study preparation Jan 30
* 4. Bufkit Feb
6
5. Forecast group discussion Feb
13
* 6. EXAM
1 Feb
20
7. Practice TV presentations Feb
27
8. TV presentations (at IRC) Mar 13
* 9. Severe weather indices (calculator
required) Mar
20
*10. Composite chart for
severe weather Mar
27
11. Work on projects Apr
3
*12. EXAM 2 Apr
10
13. Severe weather discussion (or regular
discussion if there is no severe) Apr
17
14. Research
Oral Reports (Written Reports also due April 24 by 4:50) Apr 24
Forecast Schedule (WxChallenge and
Severe Weather)
Dates Site
Jan 21-Feb 1 Phoenix, AZ (KPHX) Links may be found at the class WxChallenge webpage, www.oneonta.edu/academics/wxclub/wxchallenge.html
Feb 4-15 TBD – Flex site
Feb 18-28 TBD
– Flex site
Mar 4-15 TBD – Flex site (We are on break the first week of this
station
But it will still count for class)
Mar 18-28 TBD – Flex site
Apr
1-18:
Severe Weather forecasting
(Procedure to be announced)