Spring, 2019: Weather Analysis and Forecasting II (METR 361) - 4 s.h.

                                        

Lectures: 9-9:50 Mon, Wed, Fri (309)   Lab: Wed 2-4:50 (309)

Instructor: Dr. Jerome Blechman, 311B Science I, phone 3322, e-mail Jerome.Blechman@oneonta.edu

Office hours: Monday and Friday 10-11, Tuesday 1-2, Wednesday 11-12

 

Text: None.  Figures will be posted to the web page: http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/JBpages/METR361top2019.html which can be accessed directly or through Blackboard

 

Catalog Course Description: Principles learned in METR 360 are applied to forecasting of severe weather conditions and different types of synoptic scale storms.  In addition, the construction of computer forecast models is studied for identification of systematic errors.  Also covered are summer forecasting, automated observation, and broadcast meteorology.  Laboratories cover specialized forecast techniques and media weather presentation.

 

Course Objectives:  In the Spring we cover more applied topics than in the Fall.  The goal is to study more types of atmospheric behavior and to make better forecasts.  I will also expect you to apply the basics you learned in METR 360 to different situations. You must think about and analyze weather situations in this class. There will be sections on synoptics of severe weather, winter storms, as well as spring and summer forecast challenges, and forecast models.  You will also plan and execute a real-time synoptic meteorology case study.

 

SUNY Learning Outcome and course goal:

Students will apply principles of atmospheric synoptic and dynamic meteorology to the prediction of states of the atmosphere on time scales up to two weeks into the future.

 

Emergency Evacuation/Shelter-in-Place Procedures:

In the event of an emergency evacuation (i.e. fire or other emergency), classes meeting in Science I are directed to reassemble at Chase Gymnasium so that all persons can be accounted for.  Complete details of the College’s emergency evacuation, shelter-in-place, and other emergency procedures can be found at www.oneonta.edu/security.

 

ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act) Statement:

All individuals who are diagnosed with a disability are protected under the Americans with Disabilities Act, and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. As such, you may be entitled to certain accommodations within this class. If you are diagnosed with a disability, please make an appointment to meet with Student Disability Services (SDS), 209 Alumni Hall, ext. 2137. All students with the necessary supporting documentation will be provided appropriate accommodations as determined by the SDS Office. It is your responsibility to contact SDS and provide the professor with your accommodation plan before a test.  More information can be found at http://www.oneonta.edu/development/sds/

 

Grading:   Class Exams: 15% each (total=30%), Lab assignments: 15%, Final exam (cumulative): 20%, Project: 20%, Forecast contest: 15% - This will start with the WxChallenge Contest as in the fall, but during severe weather season I will change the format so we can forecast severe thunderstorm areas. Your cumulative SPRING semester score will be used.  The schedule is on the next page.  If your course average is close to the borderline between two grades, I reserve the right to choose which grade is most appropriate, based on how well you have achieved the course learning outcome, in my opinion.


 

Grading Scale:          93-100% = A        90-92% = A-         87-89% = B+                        83-86% = B

                                      80-82% = B-         77-79% = C+        73-76% = C                          70-72% = C-

                                      67-69% = D+        63-66% = D          60-62% = D-                         0-59% = E

 

Project (20% of course grade): This is a term paper and presentation based on a research project.  You will choose a real-time case study.  Planning for this should begin immediately as your case could come up tomorrow. To reserve a date or event, ask me.  The first person to request a date gets it.  If the weather for your date is a dud, you can request one other and that’s the one you take (no third chances).  You must prepare a written report and make an oral presentation using Microsoft PowerPoint, scheduled for April 24. Grades will be based on how well you show (through the oral and written parts) that you know the subject. The written report and PowerPoint are both due on April 24 by the end of the lab period. Your overall project grade will be the average of the oral and written grades.

 

Lecture Topics

1. Finish Jet Streams                                                        7. ASOS

2. Colorado storm case studies                                        8. Synoptics of severe weather

3. East coast snowstorm studies                                      9. Summer synoptics              

4. Alberta Clippers                                                         10. EXAM (April 10)  

5. EXAM (February 20)                                                11. Model mechanics, verification

6. Broadcast meteorology                                                FINAL EXAM:  May 6, 8 a.m.        

                             .

Notes and additional Policies:

 

No attendance will be taken in lecture or lab so it is up to you to come to class to get the necessary material.  Since there is no text, this is very important.  If you are sick or need to miss a class for a legitimate reason, you are still responsible for the material covered in class. The lecture PowerPoints will be posted to the course page, http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/JBpages/Metr361top2019.html. Any topic in the PowerPoints could appear on exams.  If you have want to know about something in the PowerPoints there was not covered in lecture, ask me.

 

If you miss an exam you MUST have a verifiable, acceptable excuse to take a makeup.  If you’re sick, go to the Health Center to establish a record of treatment. Then get a doctor’s note to document that you were excusably sick. Email me (Jerome.Blechman@oneonta.edu) as soon as possible in any case when you miss an exam.

 

Graded labs must be turned in the following week, unless a different due date is announced during the laboratory period.  If you are sick and miss the lab period, you must make up the assignment as soon as possible (no doctor’s note needed for labs). 

 

 

Labs:

 

As standard equipment you will need colored pens and pencils (red, blue, green), a plotting pen and a ruler.  Bring a calculator also.  Starred lab (*) grades count as part of the overall lab grade (15%). Bold lettering indicates a separate grade, not included in the lab average will be given for this “lab”, as shown in the section “Grading”.

 

*  1. “Instant” case studies                                                                                              Jan 16

*  2. Colorado Blizzard case surface analysis                                                                 Jan 23

    3. Case Study preparation                                                                                           Jan 30

*  4. Bufkit                                                                                                                       Feb 6

    5. Forecast group discussion                                                                                       Feb 13

*  6. EXAM 1                                                                                                                  Feb 20    

    7. Practice TV presentations                                                                                        Feb 27

    8. TV presentations (at IRC)                                                                                       Mar 13

*  9. Severe weather indices (calculator required)                                                          Mar 20

*10. Composite chart for severe weather                                                                        Mar 27

  11. Work on projects                                                                                                     Apr 3

*12. EXAM 2                                                                                                                  Apr 10

  13. Severe weather discussion (or regular discussion if there is no severe)                  Apr 17

  14. Research Oral Reports (Written Reports also due April 24 by 4:50)              Apr 24

 

 

Forecast Schedule (WxChallenge and Severe Weather)

 

Dates                                    Site                                                                                         

 

Jan 21-Feb 1             Phoenix, AZ (KPHX)  Links may be found at the class WxChallenge webpage,                         www.oneonta.edu/academics/wxclub/wxchallenge.html

Feb 4-15                   TBD – Flex site

Feb 18-28                  TBD – Flex site

Mar 4-15                   TBD – Flex site  (We are on break the first week of this station

                                  But it will still count for class)          

                                Mar 18-28                             TBD – Flex site         

    

       Apr 1-18:       Severe Weather forecasting  (Procedure to be announced)