2. This is an ASOS question.  Examine the 18Z May 1 surface map from Texas.  All the stations shown have ASOS.
            a. ( 4%) There are two stations reporting weather which ASOS cannot report.  What are those observations?
            b. ( 5%) The station marked with an arrow is reporting light continuous rain with clear skies.  How is that possible?

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    3. This is a cyclogenesis that occurred in January of this year.  You have a surface map loop, and short loops of the 850 mb maps, 200 mb maps, and the 500 mb absolute vorticity maps.
            a. ( 12%) What features were favorable for cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico?
            b. ( 5%) Why didn't an east coast cyclone develop off the coast of Cape Hatteras?

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    4. For this question, use the surface map for 12Z April 30 and the 300 mb map from the same time.  The April 30 date says it's Spring but that season is often an average of more extreme seasonal conditions.  At 12Z on April 30, there appeared to be both summer and winter types of weather in North America at the same time.  
           a. ( 6%) What characteristics typical of winter synoptic conditions do you find on these maps?  Find three.
          b.(  6%) What characteristics typical of summer synoptic conditions do you find on these maps?  Find three which are not just the converse of the ones you used for part a.

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    5. ( 5%) Do the NAM and the WRF stand for the same thing?  If not, what is the difference?  (note:  I want more than the acronym but don't start listing boundary conditions, topography, etc.)

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    6. This question refers to the GFS forecasts for 06Z, May 7.  You have the 114 hour forecasts and the 126 hour forecasts.  The MSLP forecast at 114 hours shows a line of precipitation maxima from northern Texas to southern Minnesota.  The MSLP forecast at 126 hours (for the same time as the 114 hour forecast) shows three precipitation maxima in northern Texas, southeast Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma.  Yet the 850 mb forecasts at 114 hours and 126 hours and the 200 mb forecasts at 114 hours and 126 hours are almost identical.  

    (7%) What computational process is responsible for the vastly different MSLP precipitation forecasts and how does it work to make them different?

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    7. ( 20%) We know there was severe weather on May 5 of this year.  If you had been forecasting on May 4 you might have been looking at the NAM package initialized at 12Z, in particular, the 36 hour forecasts of mean sea level, 850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, and 300 mb maps.

        Construct a composite chart using each of those six forecast maps.  Draw your composite chart on the blank U.S. base map given.  Make up symbols to use on your chart for those factors which should be on the composite chart and include a key to your symbols.  Then place the symbols on the chart in the proper places, consistent with the 36 hour NAM forecast.  You MUST have at least one from each chart.  You MAY have more than one from each chart.  Analyze the potential for severe weather based on the composite chart only (this gets answered in the blue books).

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    8. For this question you will need to run the program BUFKIT.  A shortcut is located on your desktop.  Once you have BUFKIT running, click the Eta button and go to the station INL (International Falls, MN).  You will also need the 48 hour NAM MSL forecast and the following part of the MOS forecast from the same model run:

Eta MOS (MET)
 KINL   ETA MOS GUIDANCE    5/09/2007  1200 UTC                     
 DT /MAY   9/MAY  10                /MAY  11                /MAY  12
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
 N/X                    49          69          36          61    35
 TMP  77 81 77 63 58 53 54 64 66 66 64 52 45 41 41 53 56 58 56 41 40
 DPT  45 45 45 47 46 45 46 46 44 42 40 40 36 34 35 35 34 34 34 35 35
 CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL CL SC FW CL CL CL CL CL BK BK OV OV OV OV BK
 WDR  23 22 21 19 20 20 24 33 33 34 35 02 04 05 07 10 06 07 06 10 09
 WSP  11 08 09 05 05 05 06 14 15 15 12 05 04 03 04 08 08 11 06 03 03
                                                                   
      a. ( 4%) Why is this Eta MOS and not WRF MOS?
      b. ( 5%) What characteristic of the forecast sounding, which will be helpful in forecasting the rate of temperature rise during the morning May 10, is available from the BUFKIT forecast sounding but is not obvious from theMOS or the 48 hour NAM MSL forecast?  (note INL is marked on that map).

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