METR
361
Spring,
2018
Exam
1
Directions: This
is an Open-notes exam. Use anything you want, including the
Internet. You can’t ask each other questions but you can ask me for
clarifications (no guarantee that I’ll be able to answer). Answer all parts of all
questions in the blue books or write a txt or odt
file and send to Jerome.Blechman@oneonta.edu.
1. The GFS from February of 2012
forecast a storm to be located in the U.S. Pacific Northwest or Canadian
Southwest at 174 hours. It doesn’t matter if this storm verified or not. Based
on the 174 hour forecast maps for MSLP, 850 mb, 500 mb,
and 250 mb, answer the following:
a.
( 6%) What is happening on the MSLP map to split the storm into Lows in Washington state
and in Montana? You must draw pictures to illustrate your explanation.
b. ( 9%) Identify one feature on the 850 mb map, one feature on the 500 mb map, and one feature on the 250 mb
map
that support a cyclone from the surface to the upper
troposphere. Be as specific as you can (example, if you were
citing
clouds, you might specify 500 mb clouds 100 miles west of
the Washington coast. You could not simply cite "clouds".)
You do not have to explain how they work, so pick features that
obviously support cyclones.
c.
( 5%) Using the political map of
the U.S. and Canada, find five state or province capitol cities (labeled in
bold with stars) that will be directly affected in any way by either of the
Lows in the two days following these 174 hour maps? Assume a classic storm
track. Just list the capitol cities which
will be directly affected.
2. On Nov 27, 2016, a storm formed in
Colorado and moved northeastward to its 00Z position as shown on the surface, 850 mb, 700 mb, and 500 mb analyses.
a.
( 3%) From the 500 mb
map, what would meteorologists consider the tilt of the Polar trough associated
with this Colorado storm?
b.
( 3%) We only have maps from this one time but considering your answer to part
a, in what direction do you expect the surface Low to move?
c.
( 6%) This storm had a strong warm conveyor belt. What two important processes are associated
with the warm conveyor belt as shown in this case? Just name them.
d.
( 6%) What amount (heavy, moderate, light, none) and type of precipitation
would you expect from this situation at KDSM, Des Moines, IA? Briefly explain your choices. For the location of KDSM, consult the political map from question 1.
3. a.
( 9%) On the paper 300 mb map
for 00Z Jan 1, identify the locations of the strongest Polar, Subtropical, and Arctic jets. Write these locations directly on the 00Z Jan 1 map.
b. ( 9%) You also have a paper copy of a different 300 mb
map than the one in part a. This map has no analysis. Draw isotachs 90, 110, 130, and
150 knots ONLY. Be sure to label them
everywhere that labels are needed.
c. ( 6%) On the same map, label any Entrance and Exit regions that you can identify from
your isotachs. (Write the words Entrance and Exit on
the map wherever necessary)
d.
( 3%) On the same map, anywhere it is possible to locate a Jet Streak with no uncertainty, draw an
obvious “J”
4. This question is about the situation
shown by the following set of 00Z (or approximately 00Z) maps: U.S. surface, U.S. radar, eastern US Infrared
satellite, Sea surface temperature anomalies, Northeast surface observations, MSLP NAM
initialization, 925 mb, 850 mb, 700
mb, 500 mb heights, 500 mb vorticity, 300 mb, and 200 mb. You also have the snowfall
analysis resulting from this 00Z situation over the following two days. This was a major snowstorm for central New
York. Oneonta received well over 10
inches of snow.
a.
( 4%) Major coastal cities such as Washington, Philadelphia, and New
York did not get significant snow, as shown on the snowfall analysis.
What does this tell you about the eventual track of the storm?
There
were many clues from the 00Z maps as to what was about to happen. Probably that
evening there were many professional discussions happening in NWS offices.
Assume you are giving such a weather discussion and your part is to analyze the
current situation. No forecasting here. Find
and discuss the atmospheric features and processes listed in parts b-g, in
particular, how they either support or weaken the developing storm. Be specific about the maps
you are referring to and the locations or areas of items b-g on those maps. Note: you will likely find multiple uses for
some of the maps but it is not necessary to cite more than one
map if you can discuss the process adequately with just one.
b. ( 5%) Warm air
advection
c.
( 5%) Vorticity and vorticity advection
d.
( 6%) Lower tropospheric horizontal thermal structure of the
Low off the South Carolina coast (I didn’t call it lower tropospheric horizontal thermal
structure in lecture, but it was nonetheless an important part of the lectures.
You must interpret what the term means, then discuss it)
e.
( 5%) Mid-tropospheric waves
f.
( 5%) Upper tropospheric winds
g.
( 5%) Water vapor advection