METEOROLOGY 361                                                                                                                                        Spring, 2009

Exam 2                                                            

 

Directions: This is an Open-notes exam.  Use anything you want, including the Internet.  You can’t ask each other questions but you can ask me for clarifications (no guarantee that I’ll be able to answer). Answer all parts of the questions in the blue books unless otherwise directed.  If you don’t want to write it out in the blue books, you may write a text file and e-mail it to me at blechmjb@oneonta.edu


 

 

1. For this question, use BUFKIT.  In that program, open the NAM file for Birmingham, AL (KBMX), found on your desktop in the folder METR 361 Exam 2. 

 

            a. ( 16%) What does BUFKIT forecast for the period from 12Z Sunday, March 15, 2009 to 12Z Tuesday, March 17, 2009?  Include Sunday, Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night, You must have the BUFKIT Maximum or Minimum temperature (°C is fine), whichever is appropriate, sky conditions (cloudy, partly cloudy, etc.), and wind speed and direction at the surface.  In addition, forecast the total precipitation amount for the 48-hour period. 

 

               b. ( 6%) Write a synopsis  of the BUFKIT forecast, again for the 48 hours between 12Z March 15 and 12Z March 17 for KBMX.  Focus on the important attributes and changes in the atmosphere’s structure, e.g., lapse rates, dry or humid layers, wind, etc.   This should NOT be an hour-by-hour list.  Summarize the main features instead.

 

           

2. For this question you must use the IDV.  After starting IDV 2.6, load the zidv file GFSJan27 from the METR 361 Exam 2 folder.  The default will be the North America projection with a Hi-Res U.S. Keep that.  

 

a. (20%) For the time period from 12Z on January 27, 2009 to 00Z on January 28, 2009 ONLY, set up the IDV to show the following in the eastern 2/3 of North America ONLY: 

            i. Pressure reduced to MSL @ msl  in contour plan view, black contours only

            ii. Temperature @ height_above_ground in contour plan view, red contours only.  Set this up so that ONLY the 32°F isotherm appears on your map and it is 2 units thick.        

            iii. Total precipitation  @ surface in color-filled contour plan view.  Use the default colors.

            iv. Flow vectors (from u_wind_height_above_ground_&v_wind_height_above_ground).  These must be magenta, 9.0 units in size, 2.0 units in width, skipping every 1.0 vector.

 

When you have the map, capture the image with the IDV and send it to me at blechmjb@oneonta.edu.

 

b. ( 10%) On the blank U.S. map provided, draw a prog for 00Z January 28, 2009.  Your prog must have fronts, Highs, and Lows.  Also, it must show the forecast precipitation area and precipitation type.  Use the standard symbols.  Click here for a loop of the surface maps from 00Z Jan 27 to 18Z Jan 28.  Note that present weather symbols have been manually removed from the maps in the loop.

 

c. ( 10%) For what areas would you issue special weather statements or warnings?  Briefly explain your reasoning, based on the guidance you have here.

 

3. Last May 29-30, there was a large outbreak of tornadoes in Nebraska and Iowa (click here for the link to SPC’s storm reports).  This outbreak was well forecast as shown in the day 1 convective outlook, issued at 1220Z on May 29.  You may also view the surface loop and the 850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, 300 mb, and 200 mb maps for 12Z May 29, 2008.  

 

            a. ( 20%) List one feature in the pre-storm environment which was strongly favorable for severe weather and which appeared on the 12Z  850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, and 300 mb maps (that’s one feature EACH).  Be sure you specify the location of your feature on the map.  Briefly explain how your feature supports severe thunderstorm development.

 

            b. ( 8%) You should study the 18Z sounding for KOAX, which is Omaha, the upper-air station in eastern Nebraska.  Explain all the parts of this sounding which support severe thunderstorm development.

 

4. ( 10%)  The current WxChallenge city is Greensboro, NC (KGSO).  Make a standard WxChallenge forecast for the 24 hours starting 06Z March 26 and continuing through 06Z on March 27.  Forecast maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation amount, and maximum sustained wind, exactly as you would do for the contest.  Use any guidance you like. Here's a link to our WxChallenge page. 

This will be graded on accuracy based on the WxChallenge verification.  The person(s) with the minimum error points in the class will get the 10%.  Credit will be less for the rest of the class.

 
 
Exam ends at 4 p.m. sharp.  Map discussion will follow (don’t go away).  If you finish early, you may go to the restroom.