METR360
Fall,
2016
Final Exam
Directions: Answer all parts of all questions. Use the
blue books or write a text file where required. Write on the paper copy of the
exam where requested. For calculations, show all work. You may use any
source, including your notes, any textbook or the Internet. You may NOT
talk during the exam, except to me. Raise your hand if you have a
question.
The following information may (or may not) be useful:
A map
of U.S. states and their names is provided here.
1. For this question, refer
to the plotted but unanalyzed U.S.
surface map. You have a black and white paper map of this.
a. (
6%) On the paper map, draw the 50°F and 60°F isotherms only. Label
all ends.
b. (
4%) Also on the paper map, draw the cold front based on the plotted data using
the proper symbols.
2. (10%) This question is
about the NAM guidance shown at this
link. KXYZ is a real place, although obviously that is not its real
ICAO designation. Assume the guidance is perfectly correct. Using only
that guidance, complete the following table on the paper copy, including units:
Forecast parameter |
Value at 12Z Nov 27 |
Surface Temperature |
|
12-hour liquid precipitation amount |
|
700 mb
vertical velocity |
|
Surface Wind Direction (º) |
|
6-hour probability of precipitation |
3. The spectacular Buffalo
lake effect storm of November 17-18, 2014 was well forecasted by the
meteorologists at NWS-Buffalo.
a. (
9%) Looking at the NAM MSLP forecasts for 24 hour, 48
hour, and 72 hours,
forecast surface winds, the 850 mb forecast loop, and the 500 mb loop, what elements would
have shown the forecasters that an intense lake effect event was about to
occur? Find one thing at each of these levels: surface, 850 mb, and 500 mb. You don’t
have to explain how each element would have worked, just find and identify
them.
b. (
5%) Propose a meteorological or other type of feature that would have explained
an historic snow event, but does NOT appear on the maps shown? For
this one, you must explain why the feature would change an ordinary lake effect
snow event into a spectacular one. You may need to do some research since
you don’t have the maps to show your feature.
4. For this question, refer to
the vorticity map for 00Z November 18,
2016
a. (
5%) If that vortmax is at 35°N, what is the value of
the relative vorticity in the vortmax? This
will require a calculation. Show all work.
b. (
4%) Find two geographical locations (states or parts of states)
are experiencing PVA associated with the vortmax in
southeast Colorado. Do not restrict yourself to the maximum but rather,
find PVA from that particular system.
c. (
4%) Just from this vorticity map, what do you expect will be the weather being
observed at the surface in the central High Plains at that time?
5. Refer to the maps of Nov
25-28, 2016. You have NAM forecast loops of MSLP/thickness, 850 mb, 500 mb heights/absolute vorticity, and 250 mb.
a. (
6%) During the 63 hour timeframe of this forecast, there are two storms, one in
the west and one off the east coast. What kind of developments are
these? Name each and the area where each one develops.
b. (
6%) Pick either one of the developments from part b. Using maps
from at least two of the map sets given, explain why your storm develops in
that place.
c. (
5%) From the 850 mb map for 00Z Monday Nov 28, what kind of temperature
advection is occurring at Grand Island, Nebraska and what does that mean for
the vertical motion?
6. On December 5, the NAM forecast for 12Z the
next morning on December 6 showed a distinctive sounding near the town of
Harrisonburg, VA. You also can view the maps for the MSLP forecast
and the 500 mb forecast. Harrisonburg is marked HBG on
MSLP. Assume these are good forecasts and will verify.
a. (
3%) What meteorological phenomenon caused the unusual temperature sounding,
particularly with respect to the lowest half of the atmosphere (up to 500 mb)?
b. (
7%) The winds change direction with height. What type of temperature
advection does the sounding indicate and why does it appear to contradict the MSL forecast for
HBG at 12Z on Dec 6?
7. For this question you have
the 250 mb
map for 12Z Feb 14, 2016.
a. (
4%) There are areas within the contiguous United States (CONUS) which have jet
streams. Name one geographical location with a Polar Jet and one with a
Subtropical Jet. Use the state names.
b. (
3%) In the long jet stream extending from the Gulf of Mexico across Texas, New
Mexico, and Arizona, where is the Jet Streak? Pick an upper air station
and name it.
c. (
4%) There is an area with some darker shading in Missouri and Kansas. Is
this a jet stream? Justify your answer using as few sentences as you can.
8. For this question, use the
following guidance products for 12Z on an unspecified day this semester: WPC surface prog,
NAM MSLP/wind/temperatures,
NAM MSLP/1000-500
thickness, NAM simulated
radar, NAM 850 mb heights/temperature, NAM 500 heights/vorticity, NAM 250 mb heights/isotachs
a.
(10%) Make a forecast for Oneonta, NY. You must forecast the 2 meter
temperature, wind direction, sky cover, 6-hour precipitation amount, and
precipitation type.
b. (
5%) Write a forecast discussion in which you describe the synoptic situation at
12Z (don’t make any specific forecasts here – you already did that in part a).