METR 360                                                                                                        Fall 2016

Special Assignment

While I am away on Friday September 30, you are to meet to analyze and discuss the most critical forecast situation we’ve seen in a while, namely the tropical cyclone now traversing the subtropical North Atlantic ocean.  At this time the storm is affecting the islands in the Caribbean Sea but in the near future is expected to be a threat to the United States, possibly including Key West. 

1. Find forecasts for at least the next 8 days, through October 9 at 00Z.  Copy relevant forecast maps for all models that you can find.  You should be searching sites such as

     a. NCEP’s Model Guidance page (mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php)

     b. Accu-weather’s professional page. Remember we have an account (wwwl.accuweather.com/pro_login.php)

     c. Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com/hurricane)  

     d. Any other credible site with tropical weather information and/or forecast graphics

2. Hold a map discussion where the entire class participates.  Discuss ideas for what the track of the tropical cyclone will be in the next 8 days.  You may work together but each person must write their own report (see part 3, next).

3. Everyone will individually write up their own discussion, analysis, and forecast of the future track and the impacts to be expected in the U.S., particularly Key West.  This must be written in the NWS style for another meteorologist to read.  For an example, go to forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=KEY&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD

Type it into a MS Word file, or simple text file if you don’t have Word.  The Linux computers in 308 have Open Office Writer.  That is suitable.  Save your work as .docx, .txt. or .odt.   At the end, include a reference list of all models you used with website addresses.

4. Send your text or Word file to Jerome.Blechman@oneonta.edu.  This is due by 00Z Sunday.

I will grade your write-ups for scientific literacy, interpretation of the model forecasts, and communication to the reader (me).  It will count as part of the lab grade.  I’ll just include it in the average.  Do a careful job!