Fall, 2018: Weather Analysis and Forecasting I (METR 360)
Lectures: 1-1:50 p.m. Monday, Wednesday, Friday in S309. Labs: 2-4:50 p.m. Wednesday in S309
Instructor: Dr. Jerome Blechman, 311B Sci I, campus phone: 3322, Jerome.Blechman@oneonta.edu
Office hours: Monday, Wednesday, 10-10:50, Thursday 1-1:50
Text: Lab workbook (available first class period)
Good references: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology by James R. Holton; Mid-Latitude Weather Systems by T.N. Carlson; Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes by Howard B. Bluestein
Learning Outcomes:
·
Students
will apply principles of atmospheric synoptic and dynamic meteorology to the
prediction of
states of the atmosphere on time scales up to two weeks into the future
·
Students
will demonstrate their ability to communicate scientific and technical
information effectively through appropriate oral, visual and written
presentation.
·
Students
will demonstrate their ability to apply scientific reasoning, technology and
collaborative skills to solve real world problems in the Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences
Emergency Evacuation/Shelter-in-Place Procedures
In the event of an
emergency evacuation (i.e. fire or other emergency), classes meeting in Science
I are directed to reassemble at Chase Gymnasium so that all persons can
be accounted for. Complete details of the College’s emergency evacuation,
shelter-in-place, and other emergency procedures can be found at
www.oneonta.edu/security.
ADA (Americans With Disabilities Act) Statement
All individuals who are diagnosed with a disability
are protected under the Americans with Disabilities Act, and Section 504 of the
Rehabilitation Act of 1973. As such, you may be entitled to certain
accommodations within this class. If you are diagnosed with a disability,
please make an appointment to meet with Student Disability Services (SDS), 209
Alumni Hall, ext. 2137. All students with the necessary supporting
documentation will be provided appropriate accommodations as determined by the
SDS Office. It is your responsibility to contact SDS and provide the professor
with your accommodation plan before a test.
More information can be found at http://www.oneonta.edu/development/sds/
Student responsibilities and my
expectations for you
You, the student, are responsible for earning your grade in this class. I don’t “give out” grades.
In addition, I expect you to know and follow the student responsibilities established in the College Code of Student Conduct: http://www.oneonta.edu/communitystandards/code-of-student-conduct.asp I will follow the code as well whenever it applies to faculty.
Grading: Two exams: 20% each (total=40%, see schedule); Lab assignments: 30% Forecasting Contest: 10% (details to be announced), Final exam (cumulative): 20% (The Final Exam will be on Dec 17 at 11 a.m)
Grading Scale: 93-100% = A 90-92% = A- 87-89% = B+ 83-86% = B
80-82% = B- 77-79% = C+ 73-76% = C 70-72% = C-
67-69% = D+ 63-66% = D 60-62% = D- 0-59% = E
First Assignment: Read the short story “Profession” by Isaac Asimov. A web link is provided here (http://www.abelard.org/asimov.php) and a pdf version on the course homepage (http://employees.oneonta.edu/blechmjb/JBpages/METR360top18.html).
Think about it and be prepared to discuss how the concepts in this story could relate to this course and to our own profession as meteorologists. There are also more general implications. We will discuss this on Monday Aug 27. Please be ready.
Lecture Topics (note: on any day with
interesting weather, lecture may be pre-empted for a map discussion)
1. Norwegian model review 5. Air masses (damming, lake effect) 9. Potential vorticity
2. Fronts 6. NCEP guidance products 10. Cyclogenesis
3. Stability 7. Waves in the westerlies 11. Jet streams
4. Upper air 8. Vertical motion
EXAM (Oct 3) EXAM (Nov 14) FINAL EXAM (Dec 17)
(The Final exam is cumulative)
Lab Topics
Aug 29 Surface map analysis review (Map 2 graded)
Sep 5 Synoptic code (Graded)
Sep 12 Radiosonde release Analyze plotted maps* (Graded) * after maps are returned on Friday
Sep 19 Upper air code and Sounding plotting (Graded)
Sep 26 Upper air maps I (Graded),
Oct 3 Exam 1
Oct 10 Upper air maps II (Graded)
Oct 17 Numerical Guidance (Graded)
Oct 24 METAR code (Graded)
Oct 31 Lake Effect snow forecasting (Graded)
Nov 7 Forecast teams (Not Graded)
Nov 14 Exam 2
Nov 28 IDV nor'easters (Graded)
Dec 5 Forecast teams (Not graded)
Notes:
1. As standard equipment for all labs, you will need the lab workbook, a calculator, colored pens and pencils, a regular pencil with eraser, a plotting pen, and a ruler. For colored pens, get some inexpensive felt tips. At a minimum, you will need black, blue, red and green. Also, get red, blue and green pencils for shading maps. You will need a fine-tipped black plotting pen (felt-tip is fine).
2. Since we have no formal text, you must attend all labs and lectures. You should only miss a class or lab for a good reason. Sickness is a good reason. Softball practice is not. If you feel you must be absent or late, ask me first (whenever possible).
3. There will be no lab exam. The grades given for labs will be averaged and will count 30% toward the course grade. Labs are a major part of the course. Read the lab write-ups in the lab book before each lab. Graded labs must be turned in Monday following the lab, unless a different due date is announced during the laboratory period. If you are sick and miss the lab period, you must make up the assignment as soon as possible.
4. Everyone will enter the WxChallenge forecasting contest (forecasting is worth 10% of your grade). The entry fee is $5.00 for the year. You just pay me and I will pay the Contest for everyone. Read the rules at http://www.wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php You will need a six-character identifier. Mine is blechm. Yours can be anything such as kissme, Mickey, or SoGood (keep it clean). It can be your name, like Lovell or StacyB. It can be someone else’s name, like AJudge or Smith7. Notice that they are case-sensitive. You will type this identifier many times. Make it something you can type easily and remember, too. You also need a nine-character password. You can use any combination of 9 letters and numbers.